A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
